A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Heres a powerful triple to center. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Im not all that mad about it. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. by Retrosheet. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. by Retrosheet. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. fangraphs.com 1d. Bill James Thats just how it goes. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. by Retrosheet. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. Just like I wanted to see one in there. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. Just ask Jason Heyward. by Retrosheet. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. His rookie year was off-the-charts good But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. SUMMARY He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. . Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. All he needs to do is stay healthy. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. FanGraphs Membership. As was the case with the offensive player-comps group, Heyward is more accomplished than almost all of the players on this list.