According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. Reform UK are also polling in the region of 6-7%. * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. Stay informed. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. Pollsters showed that Liberal Democrat voting intention during most of this Parliament has been constant at around the 9% mark with only temporary uplifts above this point. BBC Scotland Gender Recognition Act Poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes, reported by the BBC 17 Feb 2022Full Results I DataMain findings: 57% would support making the process to acquire a gender recognition certificate easier but that support dropped when asked about specific proposals. Business & professional services. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. ", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? A majority of Scots back same-sex marriage, according to the most detailed survey of public opinion since MSPs began moves to change the law. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. 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Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. The Japanese midfielder was handed the February Player of the Month award. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. The survey puts Yes and No roughly neck-and-neck, which has been a consistent trend in polling for over a year. At 64 per cent, those respondents most likely to lean towards voting Green at the next election were also most likely to say that they support the GRR bill and that the UK Governments veto was wrong. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. We will not share your email address with any third parties. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Easy-to-digest video clips. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. Early 2021. At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party has slipped behind the opposition Labour party to its lowest level since the 2019 national. Please click 'Sign in and Subscribe' to continue. 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Question asked. In the case of Scotland, Politics.co.uk drew on the most recent Scottish voting intention polling data from Survation on 18 February. YouGov found that voting intention in 53 such constituencies in the south and east of England currently held by the party stood at 44% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 9% for the Greens. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the December 2019 general election are listed here . The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunaks party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. View our Privacy PolicyandTerms & Conditions, TheLondonEconomic.com Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Does Douglas Alexanders comeback herald the return of Labours Blairites? Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Although these recommendations are yet to be finalized, the next General Election will almost certainly be fought on a redrawn constituency map. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . The latest Panelbase survey. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. In all polls the dont knows are removed. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Stay informed. Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Those SNP MPs to lose their seats would include Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire (to the Lib Dems) and Richard Thomson in Gordon (to the Tories). This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. In response to the Redfield and Wilton poll, Scots Labour peer Lord Foulkes tweeted: "SNP on the slide. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. Dates. Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt . Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help. Education. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. YouGov said that among those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they plan to vote Labour, Sunak's net favourability score, the percentage who have a 'favourable' opinion minus the . Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, has support for Yes at its lowest level since just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson's Conservative party earn an . Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . YouGov found . In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. A Y Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. Journalism in Britain is under threat. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. 4th October 2022| on public opinion. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. With plans for the establishment of a Scottish parliament in Holyrood by the Blair government in the late 1990s, support for Scottish independence rose once again. Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r